The New Real Estate Bust

Two different families, two different regions of the US, same story. "We're not bad people. We just have to do this right now." What they're talking about is walking away from their mortgages into foreclosure, leaving the bank holding the bag.

Realtors sell this questionable service, which must have been intended originally to help people in actual financial straits to avoid the worst outcomes of foreclosure: no credit, social stigma, etc. What's different now is that the two families I described above have jobs, are current on their loans, and could even qualify for low-cost refinancing if they chose to. Their loan values are below the present market values of their homes, and in both cases, they want to live elsewhere and have little opportunity to sell right now because of soft market conditions in their areas.

These loans are part of a new kind of problem asset. After the 2008 housing crisis the risk of subprime loans was met with legislation to create tighter controls and better consumer protections. The new reality is that it's easier to go through foreclosure now, if you don't mind being in a poor credit market.

The eventual outcome of easier foreclosures will no doubt be a lot of low-end houses in the market, and a lot of ex-homeowners whose credit scores put them in a high-cost credit market, potentially for many years to come. With home ownership difficult, how many will be content renting housing forever? How many will turn to squatting as a viable choice, with the single family home now out of reach? And what will happen to the future of mortgages as a legally binding contract once large numbers of people assume that--as with shrink-wrap software licenses--"I just signed that because they said I had to, I don't know what it says lol." is a legitimate cause for subsequent action.

Whether availability of easy foreclosures will destroy or stratify housing markets may depend on the old real estate principle: location, location, location. And whether today's customers of the "easy foreclosure" market will one day regret their decision to opt out of home ownership and affordable credit depends on who you talk to. However this plays out, there's eventual economic opportunity for some, and economic peril just around the corner for many others.

8/25/12

Blogging from Berkeley

As always, it's been a while since I wrote anything here.

I'm on another trip West, this time staying a night at the hotel Durant in Berkeley. It's a Joie de Vivre hotel, themed to reflect the hotel's classic heritage (built in the 1920s) and the inescapable culture of the nearby University of California. The rooms are small but open and warm, golden yellow colors trimmed with cool greys. My view mixed flat rooftops and tall palm trees and evergreens, mostly cloudy skies illuminated by bright sunlight.

I'm sure I'll learn soon where downtown Berkeley is, not far from here I know, but this neighborhood is "Telegraph" as far as I can guess. Telegraph avenue is known for street life that epitomizes the convergence and confluence of socioeconomic diversities characteristic of the bay area. Hippies, bums, students, street artists, tourists, skateboard kids, mentally ill people, city folk and suburbanites come to hang out, check out the scene, shop, people watch, and simply watch another day go by.

Late Wednesday night in April it is not so colorful. Nearly the businesses are closed. The streets are empty except for the occasional wandering person, a bit menacing, likely intended to protect from threats more than to threaten. There is no public nightlife. Wanting to get a beer after arriving from a slightly long trip was a bit of a problem.

Kip's bar on Durant was the only place that seemed to be serving beer, and it was obviously a college place, noisy, and with no social aspect I could find interesting even with the loud cheerfulness of drunken conversation mixed with Karaoke. I thought about it a minute, decided that it would be a perfect place to be alone in a crowd for a beer's worth of time, and went in.

After watching drunken karaoke performed by floating groups of students, shouting-singing lyrics to pop songs I didn't recognize, I realized an important thing about karaoke.

It's not about the music, exactly. Karaoke singing is not supposed to be good, or creative. Nobody learns anything. It's participatory, expressive, even a bit ecstatic. Shouting lyrics everybody knows lets the singers release their anxieties and uncertainties and mental baggage, cast their fears and their superegos out into the night, return to a state of being their natural, comfortable selves, fearless for the moment, accompanied by friends, allies in the struggle to regain a sense of self in an uncertain world. A little like singing in church.

Even though the version of karaoke practiced that night at Kip's was not the performer-on-stage kind that you'd expect, I don't plan to look any further. The beer tasted good after traveling, and there was no reason to stay any longer.

Moving on from there I discovered that late night around Telegraph is food paradise. The University community has an incredible array of foods available late into the night, reflecting the multicultural diversity that is Berkeley. Burritos, Thai food, Pizza, Gyros, doughnuts and hot dogs are available, priced well and very tasty.

A good (though short) night of sleep and ready to go in the morning.

Why Blog?

I haven't written anything here in over 9 months. Also haven't used my Flickr space. Or what else is it people did online before facebook?

So what's up with the online identity?

The idea of online identity seems empty. Live people create real communities--the internet doesn't. If your friends are not remote or are not geeks there's nothing to be gained from trying to live online.

Professional online identity is useful only when there's work at stake. Either finding a job or networking for some other business purpose justify spending time and attention building online paths. Business is a practical kind of community, after all.

Otherwise, where does it fit into my life? I kind of hate spending my free time online. Facebook and e-mail on my phone connect me to other people superficially, posting statuses, scheduling real-world activities. Mostly I don't need the computer.

What is useful, and what is missing?

Contact Info: Useful to have. More useful if used more.
Messaging: Time doesn't permit staying in touch with most people most of the time.
Status: You have to be in a forced community like facebook for this to matter to anyone. People read quickly what each other are doing, consuming statuses as an entertainment product. Posting status can direct people to deeper information, if you're working at anything.

So what's the point of it all? What do I do that anyone would care about? The main things I do beyond my day job is hang out. Listen to music, take cellphone photos. Drink beer. Occasional art. Occasional attempt at reading or technology learning. Sometimes build something. Can a few hours online each week make a difference to any of those?

Response to Spam from Mary:

About this "Buy USA" thing, I do think it's good to see where things come from, and to support local manufacturers when you can. But it's better economics to "build American".

For example: 3M is worldwide now, and always moving different parts of its operations around. Some business functions, are replicated in the places they're located, whether Indonesia, Brazil, or the US. These are things like recruiting and hiring, employment practices, and community involvement. Other business functions remain centralized. Purchasing functions, for example. 3M will move manufacturing operations to China, not so much because of lower labor costs, but because of the availability of capital to build factories. They recruit top candidates from universities all over the world, including the US. One product built by 3M has been produced with the combined efforts of people throughout the company, around the globe. So is your scotch tape or post-it note "American"?

Buying food from good Minnesota corporate citizen General Mills, such as Cheerios, Green Giant vegetables, Totino's pizza, and many other brands is much the same story. The grain may be grown in North Dakota or Argentina, the vegetables in California or Mexico. Is General Mills "American"?

Is my US-built Toyota less or more "American" than a Chevrolet built in Mexico?

Minnesota's economic vitality comes from the fact that we've provided a good business environment for companies that do business around the world, and can bring wealth from other places here. Not so long ago Minnesota prospered because farmers brought their harvest to the Twin Cities to be milled, processed, packaged, and sold across the US and around the world. Now we offer good quality of life, strong education infrastructure of all kinds, whether global business leadership, policymaking, or job training.

The closer you are to your own community, for example buying vegetables at the farmers market rather than from Minnesota-based Cub foods or SuperTarget the more you create economic vitality in your own community, not because your money stays close to home, but because more of it goes to supporting the economic well-being of your neighbors who produced it, rather than the profits of corporate shareholders world-wide. But Target and General Mills create many more jobs than the farmers market.

Still, I shop at the Farmers Market when I can because the food is fresher, better-tasting, and usually cheaper, and because I like to see the person who grew it and exchange smiles. But this purposeful economic action is very different from going to Home Depot and buying US-made nails, while skipping over the local hardware store where they're more expensive and maybe made somewhere else.

I think one of the biggest cultural and class differentiators around the world now, no matter where you go, is whether a person has a sense that they can travel or not. It's not so important if you actually do travel to other places around the world, but whether you view the different parts of the globe as some place you could go, or have no interest in leaving your local familiar area. Of course, traveling and learning the inevitable lessons about yourself and your closely-held beliefs are far better for personal development than just thinking or reading about it. But either way, believing that China or Brazil or Malaysia might be places you'd one day visit, or where your kids might live and work, you'll feel much different about people earning a living in those places than if you view them as "those other places on TV where they don't speak English and have civil unrest."



On 3/19/2011 11:48 AM, Mary Boespflug wrote:
>
>
>
> YeaH, it takes more time to shop, looking at labels. I look for the list of ingredients on cans, and the place where the product was made. If it says USA, it goes in the cart. Look at food packages, too. It must be grown in the USA for me to purchase it. I want to do all I can to save as many jobs for Americans as I can. Think about it.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > One Light Bulb at a Time
> >
> > A physics teacher in high school, once told the
> > students that while one grasshopper on the railroad tracks wouldn't
> > slow a train very much, a billion of them would. With that thought
> > in
> > mind, read the following, obviously written by a good American ..
> >
> > Good idea .. . . one light bulb at a time . . . .
> >
> > Check this out . I can verify this because I was in
> > Lowes
> > the other day for some reason and just for the heck of it I was
> > looking at the hose attachments . They were all made in China . The
> > next day I was in Ace Hardware and just for the heck of it I checked
> > the hose attachments there. They were made in USA . Start looking ..
> >
> >
> > In our current economic situation, every little thing
> > we buy or do affects someone else - even their job . So, after
> > reading
> > this email, I think this lady is on the right track . Let's get
> > behind
> > her!
> >
> > My grandson likes Hershey's candy . I noticed, though,
> > that it is marked made in Mexico now. I do not buy it any more.
> >
> > My favorite toothpaste Colgate is made in Mexico ...
> > now I have switched to Crest. You have to read the labels on
> > everything
> > ..
> >
> > This past weekend I was at Kroger. I needed 60 W light
> > bulbs and Bounce dryer
> > sheets . I was in the light bulb aisle, and
> > right next to the GE brand I normally buy was an off-brand labeled,
> > "Everyday Value . " I picked up both types of bulbs and compared the
> > stats - they were the same except for the price ..
> >
> > The GE bulbs were more money than the Everyday Value
> > brand but the thing that surprised me the most was the fact that GE
> > was made in MEXICO and the Everyday Value brand was made in - get
> > ready
> > for this - the USA in a company in Cleveland, Ohio .
> >
> >
> > So throw out the myth that you cannot find products
> > you use every day that are made right here ..
> >
> >
> > So on to another aisle - Bounce Dryer Sheets . ... .
> > yep, you guessed it, Bounce cost more money and is made in Canada ..
> > The Everyday Value brand was less money and MADE IN THE USA ! I did
> > laundry yesterday and the dryer sheets performed
> > just like the Bounce
> > Free I have been using for years and at almost half the price!
> >
> > My challenge to you is to start reading the labels when
> > you shop for everyday things and see what you can find that is made
> > in
> > the USA - the job you save may be your own or your neighbors!
> >
> > If you accept the challenge, pass this on to others in
> > your address book so we can all start buying American, one light bulb
> > at a time! Stop buying from overseas companies!
> >
> > (We should have awakened a decade ago ... . .. . . . )
> >
> >
> > Let's get with the program . . . .. help our fellow
> > Americans keep their jobs and create more jobs here in the U . S . A
> > ..
> >
> >
> > I Passed this on ........ will you ???????
> >
> >

Today was a test of the workload management system.

***

The workload management system consists of two data repositories, one a project list and the other a time log. Projects or smaller tasks on the list are logged, as are some standard or ongoing tasks, breaks, etc. that do not need to be on the project list. All time worked should be logged.

The task list is reviewed and updated at the beginning or the end of each week, or both. This consists of removing completed tasks, adding new tasks, and reprioritizing tasks by adjusting due dates. In addition, tasks are added as soon as they are requested, and the list may be reprioritized on the fly. This aspect of the system facilitates the LIFO or "last manager screaming" method of prioritization favored in many organizations.

***

An unplanned though not completely unexpected Important Project greeted us today, of course an emergency situation with a hot hot deadline. Today is Monday, and also the last day of the month, so a natural deadline for anything with accounting implications.

When do you need this done?

The first of the month.

Tomorrow. Great. Would've been nice to know a little sooner.

No, the first of this month.

Huh?

Today's the last day of the month. So when the end-of-month stuff happens we need this month to reflect the new changes.

(and then) Will that take long?

Considering that nothing about these "new changes" were important for the entire month they were supposed to have been in effect, it did not seem the question was literally calling out for an accurate estimate in response. Nothing had been requested, discussed, or even mentioned up to now.

This is a good test for the workload management system's reprioritization ability. This case is not the classic interruption, but a large-scale interruption with many managers aligned with the potential to scream in concert.

My company has a history of this kind of sudden event. The dedicated lifelong employees continue to validate the process by putting up with the inconsiderate expectations of their superiors makes it work, time and time again. That kind of selfless sacrifice is the kind of thing I'd like to see automated.

The events unfold something like this.

Someone in the silent middle of the hierarchy is assigned to coordinate the ad-hoc team. Although that person bears primary responsibility for getting it done, the group knows this accountability is equally each of theirs. The dialog above or something like it takes place, a meeting is convened, the project is tersely complained about, quickly planned and the crucial tasks are split up.

From there, other work is put aside. Complete focus is placed on executing the project. One "emergency project" like this can derail days of previously planned activity. And there can be more than one such event at a time. (If that happens, "last manager screaming" can literally determine priority.)

The workload management system handles these events just like all other LIFO priority events. Because events are prioritized by due date, setting a tight deadline puts an event immediately near the top of the queue.

In addition to the weekly review/planning session, the event list should be updated as soon as time permits after significant changes. The impact of a "surprise event" is such that immediate review of the list may not be possible. It might be important to see a quick report of items with upcoming due dates to ensure you're aware whose requests are being pre-empted. Aside from that, no activity should occur outside the "emergency" unless absolutely necessary.

Because of this, the functionality of the system shifts from providing an immediate view of prioritized projects to storing a queue of projects for later execution.

It is most important that time is still recorded, though that function tends to accrue nearly all non-break time to the Important Project. Time recording that notes small bits of time put to other projects during the course of the emergency are better than those not recorded, but the disruptive nature of the event needs to be represented and can easily be documented by charging time in large blocks. This also reflects the attention that should be put to the Important Project.

When things return to normal, the workload system should be reviewed, requestors sent status updates, and due dates adjusted. This helps pick up where you left off.




***

The three asterisks refer to Herb Caen's "three dot" separators, but they are only separators.

The Spam Count

I am fortunate for the abundances I have in my life. One of these is the means to get far more e-mail than I could ever read, and fortunately this abundance is made less of a problem by my disinterest in most of what is sent to me.

I'm on several mailing lists by choice, though I fail to read most of what is sent to me because of time constraints, lack of deep interest, and the fact I can get by with a superficial understanding of what the messages contain. When I have some time to spare I can always find something interesting to read about.

As for most people, the bottom of the information barrel most of the time is spam, the "meat by-product" of electronic communication. Spam is annoying because it is by its nature unsolicited, push advertising whose value is perceived because of its high reach and low cost: you can pay people to burden the internet and annoy numerous other people by sending out unwanted messages as long as they succeed in annoying a sufficiently large number of people.

I've kept an older e-mail account for no particular reason than I like having a fall-back account should a problem arise with my primary e-mail. Over the years it's become a honey pot for spam, and today I'll be cleaning it out.

Here is a fast look at the topics of the 900-some unsolicited and unwanted messages I'll be deleting in a moment. Ready?

Careers
Work at home
School alternatives
Maid services: are you too busy to clean? yeah, right.
Easy nursing degree
online lending
shopping--save big $$
oddly female-named characters with cryptic or non-cryptic messages "what?" says one, "check out my online pics" says another.
DisneyMovieClub
Seeking a Criminal Justice Career?
Online Dating Services
eHarmony
One Plan that Saves You Money
Credit cards
Electronic Cigarette
Sexy Housewife
Lasix
DirectTV
AT&T
Toyota
Career Possibilities
Fly JetBlue
Textiles work at home
University of Phoenix
"Make less than $45,000? Qualify now for..."
Veterans and Service Members special offer
Instant Payday available for (my name here)
Massage Therapy school
National Auto Experts claims Lenders are standing by..
(Someone's name) order for (some address I've never heard of) -- other messages include my e-mail address with the same address. Interesting.
Don't let the summer pass you by (from Last June, now February)
Check out my photos on Facebook
Need cash?
Over 700 Brands of Name-Brand Furniture
Your military service could earn you...
RICH your credit score is
Verizon Wireless
National Survey, which kind of candy do you like better
AT&T
National Lotto
AccountNow Prepaid
Need Cash?
Meet singles in your area
Jenny@fastcash loans asks "Are you drowning in debt??"
100% natural male enhancement
Chocolate lovers
Car prices
AS SEEN ON TV!!
Criminal Justice school
Take this opportunity to apply for a new card..
Prize alert
Restore My Credit
Photo Copier Deals
eHarmony Matches
Summer Cruise Agent says "You have been chosen..."
Horoscope
Bras--Bras you'll love.
Medical Billing and Coding school
Lumineers offer
New Cars
AHUS987304@AOL.com or someone like that recruiting for I'm sure very worthwhile job opportunities
Spy Cameras
Want free coupons?
Workout secrets
**GI BILL** ** GI BILL **
Phone Systems
Certified Nursing Assistant
Boot Camp offers "Have a problem child no more"
Film School
Unsecured Loans
Cable TV
Cable TV
Computer TV--watch uncensored TV on your computer
Government Grants
Auto-Price-Finder
Have an important idea or invention?
1211221hilbilly@aol.com "Open Position"
Money is available
Private Jet
Used Car
Kitchen Cabinets
Graphic Design
Police Training
Cholesterol
Cruise Deals
Park Royal Cancun
Cowboy Boots
Green dot Gold
Legitimate work at home
Womens Boots
Police Training
CreditReport.com
CreditReport.com
Medical Billing and Coding
several randomly-named senders asking "sup Rich"
Classes USA
USA HOME SECURITY SYSTEM
^^^CHEF SCHOOL^^^
!!!PRiZE PenDING!!!
Orchard Bank
Eye Glasses
XRay Technician
Police Training
Work At Home
Jobs Available
Italy
UGG
ATT
Detox
Available Foreclosure
Phone Company
MyLife.com (1) New Message
Resume Bucket
Bad Credit Loan
Breast Implants
ZooskFacebook: Someone on Facebook is looking for you...
High School Diploma: Get your GED
Security CAmera
A Power Chair at Little or No Cost
Tired of being single?
No more Cable TV headaches
You have been chosen to receive....
Free Southwest Airlines Tickets
Inkjet Cartridges
Foreclosure Properties
Cable TV
Still without Cable TV service?
Never pay for auto repairs again
Replace your Kitchen Cabinets
$1500 for Rich@...
Browse gov't grant programs
check out the latest in hybrid cars
2010 Pell Grants Available
Examine your Bankruptcy Filing Options
GED
Six Sigma
Nifty Nanny Cams
YOu've rEceived a $1,000 WAL*MART certificate
Apartment Search
Speed Date
Personal Checks
Become a CNA
Great Apartments Await
Job SEarch
Your Restaurant Coupons
Confirm that you are eligible
Real estate training
IRS help
Bathroom Remodeling
Incorporate in Nevada--get a free...
Bamboo
Computer Training
Las Vegas
Cell Phones
Overnight Cash Loans
Legitimate Work at Home
Timeshare exchange
Cowboy Boots
ATT
Vimax Natural Male Enhancer
Publish Your Book
AT&T
Approval Lending
Public Records--Find out anything about anyone
Sleep apnea
Ultrasound Technician: Find babies for a living
Hawaii
More people with random names
sexyhousewife
perfumes
Photography School
Franchise--be a franchise owner
Psychic Reading
Member Alert
Laptop
Match.com
Cruise Alert
"Looking to cast a love spell?"
Kaplan University: "aim higher.."
Orchard Bankcard
Acutane lawsuit
Be a Pharmacy Assistant.
Prescription is not needed.
\ GI BILL//
Cholesterol
See if you qualify for Social Security disability
Train for Ultrasound Technician
curious about your future?
Win a Dell Laptop
Boot Camp for Kids
Your possible unclaimed money
CreditReport.com
Loan Modification
Adult Education
Healthcare degrees
Publish your Book
Engagement Ring
Smokeless Cigarette
Penny Auctions: TODAY: iPads for just $23.74
Extend you vehicle warranty
Fishingclub.com
Spy Cameras see more
Residential Security
Fast Check
Facebook Survey Invite
Airline Tickets
Asian Singles
Special Deals
Jones University
Earn Cash,start today
RICH, don't wait for payday..
Personal Unsecured Loan
Enter the exciting world of a Crime Scene Investigator
Free Cell Phone
Hip Replacement Surgery Claim Center
no need for prescription
GED information
Search our list of Foreclosed Homes
Medical Administration
Don't be fooled by imitators. Try Extenze free
Wellbutrin info
Pharmacy Assistant Program
FDA Issues Black Box warning for Avanadia
Engagement Ring Price Cuts
Car prices
You can earn up to $400 daily..
Meet Singles with Christian Values
AT&T: Black Friday Deals are Here (from last November)
FreeOnline by Bible Topic
Profit from Zero Point Healing energy
Start Building a valuable nest egg for your childrens'..
(my e-mail address), get Current Credit Scores
Incorporate in Nevada, Get a free book
ChristiaNet Newsletter: Free Bible Trivia
ChristiaNet Newsletter: Instant Loans for Bad Credit
ChristiaNet Newsletter: Meet Singles with Christial Values
ChristiaNet Newsletter: Biblical Debt Relief
Free Stuff Direct
Online Income from Home
An e' card is waiting for you
Treat thinning hair fast
Biblical Debt Relief
Cover All Home Repairs $40 monthly
Complete your bachelor?s at Kaplan University
Green-dot-Card
Green-dot-Gold
Free Bible Trivia
Pet Picture Contest
Home Warranty
Credit-Scores
Lasik
SmartPhones
AutoInsurance
SurveyInvite
Blowout Auctions Save Users 95%
Cheap Car Insurance
and finally, thanks again to religious-themed spam/scam network ChristiaNet:
Free Internet Advertising Secrets

Notes of the day:

What's going on with me lately? Here's some of it.

As usual the time of year it is has me unhappy and unsettled. Coping with that consists of staying indoors, acting irritable, lazy, and generally unpleasant.

This year because of work I'm applying my unsettled unhappiness toward work. The rationale is that I need to not rot in a hole at work if I'm going to have a happy and productive life. Whether my current employer is able to provide the growth opportunities I need or not remains to be seen, but I haven't felt confident in my own abilities lately and that is the first obstacle to overcome.

My strategy is to 1. get a strategy. 2. figure out what to do after that.

I just googled "stratgy" after encountering several poor definitions of the term in a CISA book. Strategy is sometimes defined according to the superficial characteristics of its implementation. Strategy is "an elaborate and systematic plan of action," for example. It turns out this is etymologically appropriate, as the word comes from the words "stratos" (army) and "agos" (leader), or "strategos" and "strategia", (general of the army, or office of the general). So "what generals do" is legitimately considered strategy.

This definition falls short of usefulness in admitting such meanings as "if the general loses a tooth then the loss of the tooth is "strategic". To the point it is not clear enough. The idea of strategy occurs in several areas most notably: in military language, in business, in politics, and in game theory. Game theory employs the idea as "a course of action chosen by a player in response to the range of possibilities given by the conditions of the game." In politics strategy is employed to win an office or to pass legislation. It consists of coordinated activities designed to mobilize support, neutralize opposition, build alliances, and so forth. Business strategy is similar but aims at ensuring continued profitability and growth. Military strategy provides perhaps the clearest definition: "a course of action aimed at achieving an overall objective," as differentiated from tactics, which are courses of action chosen to achieve a specific objective in pursuit of a strategic objective. The strategic spectrum covers a wide range of human activities, with some commonality and some differentiation in meaning.

What is needed for a good general definition then is a sense of how I can think of strategy clearly and usefully. In all examples above there is the sense of strategy having the qualities of a "thing," although intangible. People create strategies or choose them in order to achieve an objective. The objective is one kind of thing, achievement of it is the verb, strategy the subject. Strategy consists of a plan or plans, scenarios of actions with a particular condition or conditions the desired result. This pattern appears common to the military, the business, the political, and the game theory realms.

While exploring the syntactic aspect of the definition may seem excessive it does a lot to clarify the meaning to identify what kind of a word it is. With strategy this is made complex by another convention: strategy, though a noun, always refers to actions, whether planning or execution. Strategy expresses an intent to do something, and possibly to something complex or to do it in a complex way. It does not make sense to develop a strategy for drinking the cup of coffee in front of me. It may make sense to strategize the timing of my coffee-drinking to ensure some other objective, such as getting enough sleep at night, or to maintain alertness and productivity at specific times. In those cases the coffee could be thought of as "strategic" but only in the sense that when I drink it makes a difference. I wouldn't stockpile coffee as a "strategic asset" unless I had a somewhat different objective involving mass distribution, security against coffee-less conditions, or some kind of research and development. So the objective gives a strategy its shape and form.

More than that, it could be argued that strategy, rather than being simply "what the general does," requires reference to an objective. An objective can exist without any strategy, but a strategy cannot exist without an objective. To see this we may need to think about what makes us consider a general good at his position. Often we make judgments based on appearance and demeanor, but the credentials that traditionally are the mark of military virtue are a history of winning at conflicts, both on the battlefield and in the chain of command. A general who achieves the objectives of his command is a well-respected general, and consistent with this is the post-hoc commendation of the strategies employed by that general in earning the respect of others.

Likewise, when we see outcomes we dislike we tend to condemn the strategies uniquely associated to those outcomes. For example, people who oppose corporate control of global resources tend to view corporate strategies in a sinister light. The corporation building a factory near your community is obviously doing it to pollute your air and water, thereby damaging your health and that of your children, whether already born or yet-to-be. This tactic, so the thinking goes, might be part of an overall strategy to weaken and defeat "we the people" who might oppose corporate theft of "our" resources. The corporate objective, in this scenario, is ultimately to control resources, and polluting, failing to protect the health of the surrounding communities, and so forth are tactics aimed at an overall strategy of monetizing all possible natural resources for the benefit of ever-increasing corporate profits.

Those more neutral about corporate activities may see environmental problems resulting from the pursuit of business objectives as side-effects, and the health consequences the unfortunate result of either human limitations or callous indifference on the part of businesspeople. In neither the case of opposition to corporate activity or that of neutrality toward it do the stakeholders participate in the strategy, and the corporate objective may be unknown or not a concern to those stakeholders. If the profit to be made does not benefit someone, most likely they will not share in the objective at hand nor be a strategic participant.

For those participating in achieving an objective, understanding the strategy and how it is intended to achieve the objective is important. Knowing every aspect of it may not be important, but understanding and agreeing with one's own role in that achievement can make the difference between supporting the objectives and strategies and pursuing a contrary agenda.

What, then, is strategy? Strategy consists of complex activity, in that it entails pursuit of an objective requiring intermediate activity to attain fulfillment. Strategy can be said to be "a course of action" or "a plan," that is, strategy refers to things intended to be done, and encompasses the doing of those things. In most senses it is more than simply actions undertaken for a purpose (i.e. I'm stopping at the gas station to fill my tank so I don't run out of gas). Strategy seems to imply some organized, rational forethought. Strategies are developed to achieve high-level aims; strategy is the business of leaders, or of generals.

It is not enough to state that whatever the officious big-shot does constitutes strategy. Strategies are often posited where there is no particular objective, and the activity resulting unsurprisingly produces no particular result. In these cases there is often something going on, unseen, that fits the pattern of strategies in pursuit of objectives: ritualized "strategic planning" activity by people in charge of an resource base within an already-effective organization maintains the status quo by failing to find innovative alternative uses for the resources already employed profitable enterprise. But to define strategy clearly and usefully, so that one might plan the real achievement of a more distinct objective, constrains the definition to the rational and intentional rather than the behavioral field.

Strategy, then, is a course of action chosen for the purpose of achieving a unifying or overarching objective. A plan to win.

So to develop a strategy, I first need to understand my objective. What game am I playing, and what constitutes winning? Then, how do I win? What are the terms of the competition? What will maximize my competitive advantage? What are the two dimensions and the four necessary scenarios (in the GBN format) that must determine the parameters of the game and what "playing to win" might mean.

Happy New Year 2011.

Looking back on the past year I haven't blogged much. I guess I've been busy.

I have considered a few topics over the past months that could be blog-worthy. Economies of Scarcity and Abundance is one. I've gone through this a few different ways now. Probably should post something.

Other interests I need to spend more time with are Solar Power, Art, Music, Work and Life.

Where this blog fits in with all this is a pertinent question. Unlike normal blogs I don't have a cultivated audience, whether a small group of comment-writers or simply friends or complete strangers I point this way occasionally as a footnote to a conversation. The point is merely to write something when I feel like it. Completely self-indulgent.

But what if this year it's time for my occult self to emerge? Where does this blog-neglecting aspect of me belong in the total picture of my life? I think this question is best not answered, but considered in a public/private context. The private or usually-ignored part of a person is vital to a sane existence I think. Rest, Sleep, meditation, carnival, psychosis, in all aspects of personality there are socially adaptive goals and individual goals at odds with one another. Life of the organism and its mental companion take the form of good or ill health, balance. Beings beset with undue concerns over food or environment often mask a protective healing edifice behind which a fragile self gains strength.

For me, on the opposite side of that sphere, what of the public self drained of ambition? Having achieved all or nearly all the baseline life of ordinary achievement is supposed to hold, home, family, friends, a good job, and amusements to fill up the free time outside work, what is left to do but crumble inside. Doctors and health-concerned people warn of the need to let the medical intermediaries manage your relationship between life and death. Other more impractically inclined advocate other avenues toward the same destination.

So what about blogging? At this point this blog is only a gauge of my interest in itself. I have the vague feeling that a blog should be a focused treatment of a topic, e.g. Timmy's scenester blogs, Jon Taplin's political-citizen blog, or others. This one is just about my wandering interests, and so with just my input is pretty vague and infrequent. I haven't even bothered to post anything about solar energy or business management or quality or data visualization or scripting lately, though I could. I just work on those things, and the blog is no more than another storage box to shove the unfinished business of today's playing into.

Possibly to play again.